TAMU/BAMA
The wait is over. The most anticipated game of my life, that some have proclaimed to be the “Game of the Century”, kicks off this Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 2:40 CT on Kyle Field. Alabama has played in plenty of big games in recent years. They’ve won three of the last four BCS National Championships. In 2011, undefeated Alabama faced undefeated LSU in Tuscaloosa in a game that was also dubbed “Game of the Century”. But this game is different. The game that occurred in 2011 pitted two established powerhouses and defensive juggernauts against each other. Both teams had won at least one championship in the previous 5 years leading up to that game. Offense was hard to come by for both the Tigers and the Crimson Tide; not even a single touchdown was scored in that contest. Two outstanding football teams played that day, with national title hopes involved, and everyone watching, but THIS game is different. Alabama claims fifteen national championships. They rank 7th in all-time FBS Division I football wins. They’re old school. They play conventional football, with an offense that is committed to the ground game, and a stout defense. Texas A&M claims three national championships, none of which were won during my lifetime or my parents’ lifetimes. They have a tradition of winning, ranking 18th in all-time football wins, but today, it would be a stretch to call them an established powerhouse. After mostly lackluster seasons since 1998, last season, they went 11-2 and finished 5th in the polls, and everyone that doubted Texas A&M’s move to the SEC quickly changed their tune. The resurgent Aggies have now returned to national relevance, but they are far from conventional. Texas A&M runs a fast-paced, spread offense, with perhaps the most unconventional quarterback to play the game: Johnny Manziel. A win in this game would cement Texas A&M as a prominent college football contender, and show the world that last season’s win in Tuscaloosa wasn’t a fluke. Not to mention, it would put the Ags in the drivers seat of the SEC West and in a very good position to make it to the conference championship game, as well as the national championship game in Pasadena, CA in January. Winning this game isn’t the be-all end-all for Texas A&M, but it is the definition of a statement game. For Alabama, a win on Saturday paves the way for them to reach the national championship for the fourth time in five years. Kevin Sumlin, one of the most brilliant offensive minds in football, versus Nick Saban, the best college football coach in the game today. This game isn’t just big because of national title implications, but for image and recruiting. There is an abundance of nationally top ranked recruits set to be at Kyle Field this weekend, and a win for Texas A&M would go a long way in landing a good amount of them. Since he’s been at Alabama, only one team has beaten the Crimson Tide in back-to-back seasons, and that was LSU in 2010 and 2011. They have this aura around them that makes everyone thinks they are invincible. If the Aggies beat them for a second year in a row, it will send a Texas-sized message to the world that they are for real, and they are here to stay. Great offense vs. Great defense. Sumlin vs. Saban. The Champion vs. The Challenger. This game is big. It’s huge. But, if you asked anyone in the A&M program, they would tell you that it’s, “just another game.”
I said this last year during the week that A&M was set to play Alabama, and I’ll say it again: Alabama is human. They’re not this big, bad, invincible team that they are oftentimes made out to be. They showed more than once last year that they were a beatable team. Against LSU, AJ McCarron completed zero passes in the second half prior to their last drive of the game when he went 4/5 and hit T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass that he took to the house for the go-ahead score. Alabama would win 21-17. In the SEC Championship game, Georgia had the ball with 1:08 left to go and down 32-28. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray put together one heck of a drive, but came up 5 yards short of the end zone as time ran out. And of course, Texas A&M went in to Tuscaloosa last year and knocked off the defending champs 29-24. Alabama is a great football team and is very well coached. Can they be beaten? Yes.
Enough about last year; let’s talk about this year. This game is all about matchups. It is going to be a chess match between these two coaching staffs. It is going to be a war.
Texas A&M Offense vs. Alabama Defense
In the SEC, games are won and lost in the trenches. The Texas A&M offensive line is among the nations best this season, even after losing no. 2 overall draft pick and Outland Trophy winner Luke Joeckel, and a 4-year starter on the interior in Patrick Lewis. With two future first-rounders at tackle, the only “weak spot” you might could find would be new starters at center and guard. Last season, the Aggies were breaking in a new offense, and while last years line was incredibly talented, they didn’t play well as a unit at the start of the season. In year 2, the O line doesn’t seem to have missed a beat and has been nothing short of dominant so far this year. Texas A&M needs to run the ball better this year against the Tide, and that starts with the big guys up front.
Alabama’s defense returns five starters in the front seven. They are big up front, and have big, physical linebackers that are dominant against the run. Last year against Alabama, if you take away Manziel’s rushing yards, the A&M backs ran for a combined 77 yards and only 2.9 yards per carry. This year’s A&M backfield is loaded with talent. Ben Malena and 230-pounder Tra Carson do a phenomenal job of running the ball between the tackles and are automatic when the Ags need a couple of yards. Brandon Williams is a burner and a threat to score anytime he touches the football. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention 6’6 270-pound tight end Cam Clear, who has been fantastic in run blocking this year, along with fellow tight end Nehemiah Hicks. The A&M O line vs. the Alabama D line is going to be a war, but I give a slight edge to A&M. I think the Ags will run the ball more effectively this year than last year.
As far as the Texas A&M passing game goes: people are going to be shocked when they see how much better Manziel is at throwing the football. Last year, he was frantic in the pocket, and was quick to tuck it and run once the pass rush got to him. So far this year, Manziel has been reluctant to run. He still scrambles and makes people miss, but he has been staying behind the line of scrimmage and picking teams apart. He is much more calm and poised in the pocket, and can make every throw with great accuracy. Manziel lost three of his top targets from last year, including record-setting wide receiver Ryan Swope. However, the young guys taking their places may be more talented. Mike Evans was Manziel’s top target last year, hauling in 82 passes for 1105 yards and 5 TD’s on a bad hamstring for the better part of the season. Now, fully healthy, the sure-handed Evans is looking like an All-American. Guys like Malcome Kennedy, JaQuay Williams, Sabian Holmes, and Ricky Seals-Jones have looked promising thus far, and will be key on Saturday. Don’t forget about Cam Clear, the big tight end, who is a mismatch anywhere on the field. All of the aforementioned weapons plus the Aggie tailbacks in the screen game make this A&M passing attack very potent.
The Alabama secondary lost All-American cornerback Dee Milliner and 3-year starting safety Robert Lester off of last year’s defense, and looked a little vulnerable in their opener against Virginia Tech. VA Tech would sometimes have receivers running wide open, and the quarterback couldn’t hit them. When the quarterback would make a good throw, the receivers would oftentimes drop it. I really like the way that A&M matches up with the Alabama secondary. Plus, as good as Alabama’s defense is, they don’t have a dominant pass rusher on their roster. To get pressure on Manziel last year, Bama had to bring extra guys from the second level, and when they did force him out of the pocket, he went 6 for 6 when passing.
Interesting though: Texas A&M led the country last season in 3rd down conversion percentage, and has continued that trend so far this season. If the A&M offense has similar success against Alabama, they could tire that big, strong defense out and end up putting a lot of points on the board.
Alabama Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Don’t look at the Alabama/Virginia Tech score and think that Alabama had a great day offensively. The score was 35-10, but only two of Alabama’s scores were from their offense; the rest came from defense and special teams (more on that later). I have watched the 2012 A&M/Bama game more than a time or two, and I cannot tell you enough how glad I am that Eddie Lacy is in the NFL now. Last year, Alabama had one of the most dominant offensive lines that college football has probably ever seen. Add in a physical runner like Lacy, and a very talented true freshman in T.J. Yeldon, and they had an incredibly powerful running game. However, not only is Lacy gone to the NFL, but so is right tackle D.J. Fluker (1st rounder), Chance Warmack (1st rounder), and Barrett Jones (All-American, 2011 Outland Trophy winner) are also gone. These guys were absolute maulers on the offensive line and each of them is very significant loss, but I figured the Crimson Tide would simply reload at the position. This was not the case. A solid Virginia Tech defensive line got the better of them. Their future first round tackler drew two holding penalties and was consistently beaten around the edge; their starting left guard got whipped more than a few times; the unit didn’t communicate very well at all. T.J. Yeldon is one of the top backs in the country, and Alabama has depth at running back. With a couple weeks off, the Bama O line may have worked out the kinks, but it remains to be seen.
Texas A&M lost four starters from their front seven. In all honesty, the defense looked bad in the first game. They improved in the second game, but still gave up too many big plays. Here’s the thing though: the A&M defense that we see against Alabama won’t look anything like the defense we’ve seen the past two games. Six starters on defense were out against Rice, and five were out against Sam Houston. Also, against both of those teams, A&M stayed in nickel the whole game (3-3-5 and 4-2-5). Against Alabama, I would bet that you’ll see A&M run a 4-3 and walk a safety up, except for on obvious passing downs. That, plus getting both starting defensive ends back, and their best linebacker, will make the front seven look a lot different. Does different mean better? We’ll see. Aggie defensive coordinator Mark Snyder has been very vanilla with calling blitzes so far this year, so expect to see him dial up the pressure on A.J. McCarron.
Speaking of putting pressure on McCarron, if you get him on the move, he’s not that good. Two weeks ago, Virginia Tech was able to get pressure on him and sacked him four times. McCarron was 10/23 for 110 yards in that game, a lackluster performance, to say the least. But McCarron is still a very solid quarterback, and he’s got some pretty good weapons at receiver. Sophomore Amari Cooper is preseason All-SEC and is one of the best in the country. Kevin Norwood is a quick, and very polished receiver. Christion Jones is a burner. Alabama may have the best receiving corps that A&M will face this year.
The Aggies lost Demontre Moore, who led the team in sacks by a wide margin last season. A&M doesn’t really have a guy who can go out and get double-digit sacks this season, but collectively, they can still get a few sacks a game. In the secondary, Devante Harris, who is A&M’s best cover corner, will be back this week. Deshazor Everett, who has looked fantastic in what little game time he has gotten, will be available for a full game. I like how A&M’s corners match up with the Alabama receivers. Let’s keep in mind that A.J. McCarron didn’t throw an interception last season until he played A&M, and both of those can be accredited to the scheming and coaching of Aggie DC Mark Snyder.
The Alabama offense played bad in their first game, but don’t mistake them for a bad offense. They are very talented, and if they play like they are capable of on Saturday, we could be looking at a shootout.
Special Teams
Alabama return man Christion Jones stole the show in Week 1 when he scored on a kickoff return, punt return, and had a receiving touchdown. Jones is very dangerous with the ball in his hands, but Texas A&M has the guys that can neutralize him. Against Rice, A&M punter Drew Kaser had a fantastic day. He had three punts and they all landed inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, including one that was a 77-yarder. Against Sam Houston, 8/9 of Bertolet’s kickoffs went for touchbacks. The best way to defend a deadly return man is to not give him a chance.
LaQuivionte Gonzalez has been handling kickoff return duties and has done an okay job. He might be the fastest guy on the team. Walk-on Travis Labhart has been returning punts, but that may change with Devante Harris, the expected starter, coming off suspension. Labhart has been sure-handed so far this season, so it will be interesting to see who is back there against Alabama.
Perhaps the most important aspect of the special teams is the placekicker. Alabama’s Cade Foster is 4/9 and 2/9 the past two respective seasons, but he has been used almost exclusively for long-range field goals his whole career. With Jeremy Shelley gone, Foster will be attempting all of Alabama’s kicks. He hasn’t attempted a field goal so far this season.
Several people know of Texas A&M kicker Taylor Bertolet, and if they do, it’s for the wrong reasons. Bertolet was just converted just 13 of his 22 attempts last season, and was an abysmal 1-6 from the 30-39 yard range. I’ve read a lot of good things about Bertolet and how well he is doing under new special teams coach Jeff Banks. He’s 2/3 so far this season, with his one miss coming during slippery weather conditions. Bertolet missed one field goal and one extra point in Tuscaloosa last season. Every point is going to matter against Alabama, and A&M can’t afford to leave points on the board like they did last year. Bertolet needs to come up big when called on.
Here is one last thing that I think can have a huge effect on the game: it’s at Kyle Field. The players on this Alabama squad have played in hostile environments before. That’s nothing new. But none of them have ever played at Kyle Field. There were more student tickets sold for this game than any game in A&M history. This game could very well break the attendance record at Kyle Field. The Aggie fans are going to start out loud and momentum shifts are going to be huge. Alabama’s green offensive line is going to have a lot of trouble trying to communicate.
This is going to be a fantastic football game. Texas A&M should have scored 34 on Alabama last season, and this A&M offense is better than last year’s, and they’re playing at home. I think A&M can get enough stops and force enough field goal attempts to stay in it. I think you’re going to see both teams show up and play hard. This game is going to be a 15-round boxing match. But in this heavyweight contest, I’m taking the underdog.
Down goes Bama.
TEXAS AGGIES – 41 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE – 34